A stable aggregate is not a stable measurement
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We ran the same benchmark five times against our own production system and got 752, 750, 750, 749 and 749 out of 800. That is a spread of three items across five runs. Less than half a percentage point. If you saw those five numbers you would conclude the measurement was essentially deterministic, quote the mean, and move on. I nearly did. Then I compared the runs item by item, and 38 of the 800 items had changed answer between one run and another. Not three. Thirty eight, which is 4.8 percent…
1Key Takeaways
- We ran the same benchmark five times against our own production system and got 752, 750, 750, 749 and 749 out of 800.
- That is a spread of three items across five runs.
- If you saw those five numbers you would conclude the measurement was essentially deterministic, quote the mean, and move on.
- Then I compared the runs item by item, and 38 of the 800 items had changed answer between one run and another.
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3Why it matters
Coding AI shifts how fast software ships and how much human review each change needs. DEV — AI reports that we ran the same benchmark five times against our own production system and got 752, 750, 750, 749 and 749 out of 800.
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