Designing a Point-in-Time Backtest You Can Actually Trust
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Originally published at rantum.xyz , which is the canonical source. Almost any predictive model can be made to look good on historical data. The hard part is a backtest that reports what was actually knowable at decision time, so the number survives contact with production. Here is the discipline we hold every model to at Rantum, and the worked example where it walked a flattering 5.3x result down to an honest 2x. The challenge Every predictive product is sold on a backtest: "our model would…
1Key Takeaways
- Originally published at rantum.xyz , which is the canonical source.
- Almost any predictive model can be made to look good on historical data.
- The hard part is a backtest that reports what was actually knowable at decision time, so the number survives contact with production.
- Here is the discipline we hold every model to at Rantum, and the worked example where it walked a flattering 5.3x result down to an honest 2x.
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3Why it matters
Coding AI shifts how fast software ships and how much human review each change needs. DEV — ML reports that originally published at rantum.xyz , which is the canonical source.
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