How prediction monitoring differs from single-shot forecasting

Three distinct layers for "predicting the future" now coexist, and they solve fundamentally different problems. We have been building Watching Agents at Inithouse, a platform for continuous prediction monitoring, and the most common question we get is: "How is this different from forecasting APIs or prediction markets?" Short answer: they are complementary. Here is how. Layer 1: Single-shot forecasting APIs A forecasting API takes a question about a future event and returns a calibrated…