I graded my own ML option forecasts. Here's the Brier score.
Article summary
Quick briefing — cleaned from the original RSS feed
In May I promised — out loud, on the internet, where people can screenshot you — that I'd grade Helium's published prob_itm forecasts when the June 2026 AAPL contracts expired. June 26 came. The contracts died. So I graded them. This is not a victory lap. Mean Brier loss on n=2 is 0.3846 . A coin flip that always says 0.5 scores 0.25 when the world resolves to 0 or 1. We did worse than a coin flip. That is information. What we froze in May Contract Helium prob_itm Market-ish implied AAPL $310C…
1Key Takeaways
- In May I promised — out loud, on the internet, where people can screenshot you — that I'd grade Helium's published prob_itm forecasts when the June 2026 AAPL contracts expired.
- A coin flip that always says 0.5 scores 0.25 when the world resolves to 0 or 1.
- What we froze in May Contract Helium prob_itm Market-ish implied AAPL $310C….
2AIWedia Score
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3Why it matters
Coding AI shifts how fast software ships and how much human review each change needs. DEV — ML reports that in May I promised — out loud, on the internet, where people can screenshot you — that I'd grade Helium's published prob_itm forecasts when the June 2026 AAPL contracts expired.
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