I graded my own ML option forecasts. Here's the Brier score.
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In May I published a 40-line recipe that logs Helium's prob_itm on listed options and grades them at expiration with the Brier loss: brier_loss = ( prob_itm - realized_itm ) ** 2 I also committed publicly to grading two June 2026 AAPL contracts when they expired. June 26 has passed. This is the grade. The frozen forecasts (2026-05-26 API) Contract Helium prob_itm Market-implied AAPL $310C 2026-06-26 0.42 ~0.50 AAPL $295P 2026-06-26 0.23 ~0.24 Resolution AAPL NASDAQ close on 2026-06-26: $283.78…
1Key Takeaways
- In May I published a 40-line recipe that logs Helium's prob_itm on listed options and grades them at expiration with the Brier loss: brier_loss = ( prob_itm - realized_itm ) ** 2 I also committed publicly to grading two June 2026 AAPL contracts when they expired.
- The frozen forecasts (2026-05-26 API) Contract Helium prob_itm Market-implied AAPL $310C 2026-06-26 0.42 ~0.50 AAPL $295P 2026-06-26 0.23 ~0.24 Resolution AAPL NASDAQ close on 2026-06-26: $283.78….
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3Why it matters
Coding AI shifts how fast software ships and how much human review each change needs. DEV — ML reports that in May I published a 40-line recipe that logs Helium's prob_itm on listed options and grades them at expiration with the Brier loss: brier_loss = ( prob_itm - realized_itm ) ** 2 I also committed publicly to grading two June 2026 AAPL contracts when they expired.
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